How to Make Your Own Luck: A Guide for Indian Founders

Series · 19 partsStart with Part 1 →

Success in Indian startups is rarely just luck. This 18-chapter guide by Dr. Aniruddha Malpani adapts the Predictive Intelligence framework of Shapiro and Stevenson’s Make Your Own Luck for Indian founders: define the future you want, decide whether the game is worth playing, structure your risks, and know when to quit. Read the chapters in order, or start with the one you need most.

Build Your Founder’s Operating System

1. Chapter 1: Why Indian Founders Must Make Their Own Luck: How to Make Your Own Luck: A Guide for Indian Founders explains why startup success depends on more than timing or favorable circumstances.
2. Chapter 2: Predictive Intelligence, The Skill That Beats Jugaad: This chapter explains Predictive Intelligence, a way to improve your odds when information is incomplete.
3. Chapter 3: The Gambler’s Dozen for Indian Startups: The Gambler’s Dozen is a checklist for Indian founders making significant bets, such as raising capital, launching in a new city, hiring a senior leader, entering a regulated ca…

Choose and Shape the Game

4. Chapter 4: Step 1, What Future Are You Trying to Create?: This chapter explains how founders can define a specific future for their company before making major decisions.
5. Chapter 5: Step 2, Is This Game Worth Playing?: This chapter explains how Indian founders can assess whether a business opportunity is worth pursuing.
6. Chapter 6: Step 3, Jump Bets and Radical Shifts: This chapter explains when founders should make a jump bet instead of staying on their original course.
7. Chapter 7: Step 4, Campaign Plans and Building Your A-Team: This chapter explains how Indian founders can build a campaign plan by identifying allies, possible supporters, and people who may oppose the startup.

Read the Bet You Are Actually Making

8. Chapter 8: Step 5, Spotting Implicit Strategy: This chapter explains how founders can identify the strategy shown by their time and spending, rather than only by what they say.
9. Chapter 9: Step 6, Always Have a Plan B: This chapter explains why Indian companies need backup plans for funding, regulation, and key employee changes.
10. Chapter 10: Step 7, Prediction Maps for India: This chapter explains how Indian founders can map external forces by their impact and uncertainty.

Structure Smarter Bets

11. Chapter 11: Step 8, Wallpaper Bets and Leveraging the System: This chapter explains how founders can build lower-risk bets by aligning with large, relatively predictable forces.
12. Chapter 12: Step 9, Risk Splits in the Indian Context: This chapter explains how Indian founders can avoid carrying all the downside of a new venture alone.
13. Chapter 13: Step 10, Be Crystal Clear on the “It”: This chapter explains how founders can identify the specific advantage their business is betting on.
14. Chapter 14: Step 11, Domino Effects and Linked Bets: This chapter explains how major startup decisions create linked follow-on bets.
15. Chapter 15: Step 12, Knowing When to Quit: This chapter explains how founders can recognize when continuing a business is no longer worth the cost.

Turn Judgment into a Repeatable System

16. Chapter 16: Using AI to Supercharge Predictive Intelligence: This chapter explains how Indian founders can use AI to strengthen predictive intelligence without giving up their own judgment.
17. Chapter 17: Indian Case Studies, From Jugaad to Predictive Intelligence: This chapter examines how Indian companies used technology, trust, infrastructure, and disciplined risk choices to build their businesses.
18. Chapter 18: Your Action Plan, Building a High-PI Founder System: This chapter gives founders a practical routine for using Predictive Intelligence in decisions, planning, spending, and team culture.
19. Conclusion: From Dumb Luck to Designed Destiny: This conclusion explains how Indian founders can make smarter bets under uncertainty through Predictive Intelligence.