Part 11 of 19 in How to Make Your Own Luck: A Guide for Indian Founders← Part 10Part 12 →
This chapter explains how founders can build lower-risk bets by aligning with large, relatively predictable forces. It helps Indian founders assess systems such as UPI, GST, Aadhaar, DigiLocker, ONDC, and the Account Aggregator framework.
- Bill Gates’s early Microsoft bet on the IBM PC is presented as a classic wallpaper example.
- Indian founders can build on UPI, GST-driven formalization, and government digital public infrastructure.
- The key skill is identifying predictable forces to align with instead of fighting.
- Treating ONDC or the Account Aggregator framework as wallpaper can create lower-risk bets.
Bill Gates’s early Microsoft bet on the IBM PC is the classic wallpaper example, he rode a high-impact, relatively certain shift. Indian equivalents include building on UPI (PhonePe, Google Pay, many lending apps), riding the formalization wave created by GST, or leveraging the government’s digital public infrastructure (Aadhaar, DigiLocker, ONDC).
The skill is to identify which large, relatively predictable forces you can align with rather than fight. Founders who treat ONDC or the Account Aggregator framework as wallpaper rather than threats have structured lower-risk bets.
Frequently asked questions
What is a wallpaper bet?
A wallpaper bet aligns with a large, high-impact, relatively certain shift, such as Microsoft’s early bet on the IBM PC.
What are Indian examples of wallpaper bets?
Examples include building on UPI, riding the formalization wave created by GST, and leveraging Aadhaar, DigiLocker, or ONDC.
How can founders make lower-risk bets?
Founders can identify large, relatively predictable forces they can align with rather than fight.
How should founders view ONDC and the Account Aggregator framework?
Founders who treat them as wallpaper rather than threats can structure lower-risk bets.