Part 10 of 19 in How to Make Your Own Luck: A Guide for Indian Founders← Part 9Part 11 →
This chapter explains how Indian founders can map external forces by their impact and uncertainty. It helps founders identify predictable trends to use and uncertain risks to hedge against.
- Plot external factors on a 2×2 map using impact and uncertainty.
- High-impact, low-uncertainty factors are wallpaper to leverage rather than fight.
- High-impact, high-uncertainty factors are wild cards that need hedges.
- Update the map quarterly and use AI tools to populate and challenge it.
A prediction map plots external factors by impact and uncertainty. High-impact, low-uncertainty items are “wallpaper”, powerful forces you should leverage rather than fight. High-impact, high-uncertainty items are wild cards that need hedges.
For an Indian fintech in 2024-2026, wallpaper factors might include continued UPI growth and rising smartphone penetration in Tier 2/3 cities. Wild cards might include sudden changes in digital lending guidelines or a major data-privacy enforcement action.
Draw a simple 2×2. Update it quarterly. AI tools excel at this: give them current news, RBI circulars, and demographic data and ask them to populate and challenge your map.
Frequently asked questions
What is a prediction map?
A prediction map plots external factors by their impact and uncertainty on a simple 2×2.
What are wallpaper factors for an Indian fintech in 2024 to 2026?
Continued UPI growth and rising smartphone penetration in Tier 2/3 cities are examples of high-impact, low-uncertainty wallpaper factors.
What are wild cards for an Indian fintech?
Sudden changes in digital lending guidelines or a major data-privacy enforcement action are examples of high-impact, high-uncertainty wild cards.
How can AI tools help create a prediction map?
Give AI tools current news, RBI circulars, and demographic data, then ask them to populate and challenge the map.